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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still